The Democratic Party could have won the elections, allying itself with 5 Stelle and Calenda

The Democratic Party could have won the elections, allying itself with 5 Stelle and Calenda

The Democratic Party could have won the elections

The methodological premise of this article is that in politics two plus two does not equate to four. That is, to put it intelligibly, in the elections the alliance between two parties does not necessarily translate into the sum of their respective percentages. Because, to cite the Italian case, there may be the voter of the 5 Star Movement who does not vote the list today led by Giuseppe Conte if allied with the Democratic Party. As well as the voter who chooses to vote the coalition, convinced that a separate race translates into a defeat, as it actually was, and therefore it is worth it.

The numbers coming out of the polls, however, allow to play a game. That is to try to sum up the results of the main forces that refer in different ways to the progressive area and understand how it would have gone in the event of an alliance. A game up to a certain point, then, given that even in the aftermath of the vote the secretary of the Democratic Party Enrico Letta claimed the broad field, or the alliance of democrats, 5 Star Movement and third pole (i.e. Italia Viva and Action), as the only solution to win the elections.

To understand if the number one of the Nazarene is right, took into consideration the single-member associations of the House, creating three maps. The first shows who actually got the most votes between center-right and center-left. The second how it would have gone if the latter had allied himself with the third pole, as in fact he had done for a few days in August. The third, finally, with the wide field.

Attention: we are of little interest here who actually won the college. In the south there are some where the 5 Star Movement prevailed, in South Tyrol the Svp won, in Messina the De Luca Mayor of Italy list. The point is instead to understand who got the most votes between the two main coalitions. This is because in a context that does not provide for separate voting, the result of the uninominal probably also reflects that of the proportional one. And so it gives us an idea of ​​how the elections could have gone, always remembering that an alliance does not translate into the sum of the votes of the individual parties.

The real situation

The coalition center-right, uninominal, took more votes than the center-left practically everywhere: there are just 17 out of 147 those in which the Democratic Party, the Italian Left, the Greens, + Europe and Civic Engagement have managed to prevail. Here is the situation seen on a map.

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Click here if you don't see the graph Some boarding schools straddling the Tuscan Apennines Emilia, the cities of Milan, Turin, Rome and Naples, the autonomous region of Valle d'Aosta and Alto Adige. It is only here that, in autonomy, the center-left coalition has managed to prevail. What if it had allied itself with the third pole?

The alliance with the third pole

Always remembering that it is not certain that all the voters who voted individually center-left and third pole would have them supported even in the event of an alliance, this is how it would have gone in the single-member constituencies of the Chamber by adding the consents actually obtained on Sunday 25 September.

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Click here if you don't see the graph Actually something changes. The number of colleges in which the center-left would have obtained more votes than the center-right increases. Although probably not enough to overturn the final outcome: 32 deputies elected to the majority by a potential alliance between Democrats and the third pole, against 115 for the center-right. That is 15 more than the real figure.

Considering that the polls gave the center-right a majority of 235 deputies and the possible repercussions to the proportional one, the picture that would emerge would probably have been that of a coalition victory anyway led by Giorgia Meloni. Alone, with a narrower majority, with all the complications of the case for those who sit in Palazzo Chigi. What if Letta had really succeeded in building the wide field?

The wide field

In this, the outcome of the vote would have been very different. In the sense that the totoministri would probably have concerned a Letta bis government. This is in fact the result obtained by adding the votes of the center-left coalition, the third pole and the 5 Star Movement.

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Click here if you don't see the graph In this case, the large field would have obtained 94 seats, leaving just 53 at the center right . In short, he would have won the elections. Conditional obligation, as they say, not only because things went differently. But also because the Democratic Party has chosen to abandon the alliance with the 5 Star Movement after the latter has in fact triggered the spark of fire on which Lega and Forza Italia have blown to 'burn' confidence in the government led by President Mario Dragons. And it seems unlikely that the most staunch supporter of the latter, the leader of the third pole Carlo Calenda, could ally himself with those who made him fall. Divisions in the progressive field that, net of how you think, have played the game of the center-right. That he won the elections, without parole.

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