Where can Conte's party really go?

The precedents of Monti and Renzi do not bode well. But Volturara Appula's lawyer comes out of a traumatic phase, he freed himself from the traps of the M5S and the country has never really denied him. Indeed, he continues to appreciate it

Giuseppe Conte (Photo: Alessandra Benedetti - Corbis / Getty Images) On Conte's party there are quite imaginative numbers. The pollsters, who even had their antennas very straight on the possibility, are still trying to understand more and on the account of a possible list of the former prime minister in recent days we have heard of every color: "It can reach 18 -20% ”explained Antonio Noto. “I don't think that a Conte list will be able to have a sequel and that it will last long,” added Renato Mannheimer. "A personal party of an appreciated leader can certainly collect significant percentages, removing votes especially from the Pd and 5 Stars, but not more than 10%" explained Giovanni Diamanti. The latest prediction in chronological order is by Filippo Masia, according to whom the ConTe list (let's call it that, Giuseppi would seem too saucy) could reach 10-15%, fishing heavily from the M5S and the Pd. Consequently, the movement would drop between 5 and 7%, effectively disappearing, and the Democratic Party would collapse below 15%. From this point of view, a Contian party would not really suit anyone: it would weaken the dem but at the same time it would become yet another crutch of a center-left camp for which it would be impossible to beat the right in two years (or sooner). Nice mess, and the responsibility is basically all of Beppe Grillo. In addition to the Democratic Party, of course.

These are numbers that leverage the popularity and even the charm that the lawyer from Volturara Appula still seems to arouse among Italians. Excluding the new prime minister Mario Draghi, whose approval rating according to Nando Pagnoncelli has risen to 71, the numbers of politicians reward Conte, first with 49 points, even if down by a couple. It precedes Giorgia Meloni, who is leading Fratelli d’Italia to become the first (virtual) party, with an index of 40, up by 3 points, and Roberto Speranza (stable at 38). In addition, Pagnoncelli explained in the Corriere that "the progressive approach of the former premier at the helm of the M5S determines the opposite effect of a decline in his personal appreciation (from the institutional profile it assumes that of head of a political force) and of the contemporary an increase in consent for the M5S ". With the break with the guarantor, of course, everything changes. And according to the pollster's words, a Count free from the daily dripping to which the labyrinth of movement and the obstacle course prepared by the former comedian forced him for four months could garner a consensus even higher than the thresholds seen before. To understand: Conte wasted the spring writing a statute on behalf of those who first asked him and then rejected it without appeal with three lines on yet another blog. He has in fact disappeared from the public debate that counts after the tiring experience of his second government hit by the pandemic and, nevertheless, his popularity has remained high.

The premises, in short, seem to be there. It is the story that would not seem on Conte's side: other former Prime Minister before him have become passionate about active politics, or have decided to tear them apart with their own reference parties, to fall into the polling void and at the polls. Mario Monti and Matteo Renzi are the two previous ones who took over the leadership after changes in parliamentary majorities, therefore not after a political vote, which would advise Conte against such a leap. However Monti came out of a government seen by many Italians as "punitive" while Renzi, when he left the Democratic Party to found Italia Viva, had long since lost the driving force of his "government of a thousand days". The former mayor of Florence had been at odds with the country since the autumn of three years earlier, when he transformed the 2016 constitutional referendum into a vote on his face. And he lost by promising to withdraw from politics only to return a few months later to try to transform the Democratic Party from the inside, getting re-elected secretary. The honeymoon with the Italians, if anything had begun, was long over.

The honeymoon with Conte, on the other hand, remained frozen. At first it seems that many Italians, even leftists or self-styled ones, have forgotten in record time his first sovereign government with Matteo Salvini as Minister of the Interior, full of endless other filth. Are we a racist country in the DNA? Maybe yes. The fact is, for example, that the safety decrees do not seem to stain Conte's curriculum too much (as they should).

Secondly, the long months of health emergency - also dotted with uncertainties, errors, discussed appointments like that of Domenico Arcuri and benches with wheels - seem to guarantee him a sort of safe conduct: in the midst of the collective trauma, after all, he was there talking late at night in the town and therefore, net of all errors, he is perhaps recognized the ability to have learned by doing, not to have been overwhelmed by panic and to have done - against an enemy at the beginning of 2020 half-known - the maximum possible. Above all, the comparison with the European neighbors is nothing but rewards or regrets too much: experienced leaders like Angela Merkel or newbies like Conte, in the end, if they turn to the last year and a half they see uncertainties, hesitations, errors but also impulses and ability to compact public opinion. Not to mention the work on the Recovery Fund: Italy will also be too big to fail and maybe that money would have arrived even if Donald had asked for it but, again, at those tables at least formally Conte sat.

A luggage heavy, for a person struggling with politics for just over three years. A middle drama that grants him a severity discount. A popular, somewhat narcissistic and very paternalistic approach, which still has a hold on a nice piece of country: these three elements of the character's recent biography could give the ConTe list a somewhat different fate than the meteors or the Lilliputians Civic Choice o Italia viva.


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